Hungry Hungry Hippos

It’s hard to ignore the impact of recent U.S. government decisions on businesses and global trade.

In some ways, it all feels a bit like the game of Hungry Hungry Hippos. If you’re not familiar: it’s a fast-paced kids’ game where each player frantically hits a lever to make their plastic hippo lunge for marbles in the center. It’s chaotic, loud, and all about grabbing whatever you can, as fast as you can. The hippo that swallows the most marbles wins.

That’s what this moment feels like.

Tariff policies are shifting feels like every day? Product categories are being reclassified (tariffs on iPhones, but no, we cant!). Supply chain assumptions that felt stable six months ago now feel brittle. One week it’s a 25% tariff on a niche electronics category, the next it’s rumors of 100% duties on consumer goods.

And all of this is unfolding in a landscape that already feels tight — interest rates aren’t coming down, and consumer confidence is shaky.

It’s a lot. So let’s pull out a few themes relevant to CPG, Amazon, and e-commerce.

Tariffs are shifting the game - whether you import or not

Or even if you are based and selling Canada.

Many of you are fortunate not to import directly from that one major country now hit with 145% tariffs. But in reality, very few brands are entirely domestic in their sourcing.

Ingredients, packaging, machinery parts, and even simple components often come from overseas, even if the final product is blended, bottled, or boxed in the U.S. And even when that’s not the case, someone in the chain is exposed — which means costs, timing, and expectations ripple upstream and down. It’s a questions of the extent.

In addition to hard costs math, behavior is being reshaped across ecommerce

Amazon’s tactical shift in inventory and risk allocation

Over the past month, Amazon has increased POs to brands selling 1P — especially in grocery, health, and household staples. It’s buying more inventory from these brands, likely to hedge against logistics bottlenecks and capture more margin ahead of future price increases.

Meanwhile, on the 3P side, it’s doing the opposite: slashing storage limits for many sellers, especially in tariff-affected categories. The likely motivation? To prevent 3P sellers from doing what Amazon itself is doing in 1P — hoarding inventory before price shifts — which could overwhelm FBA fulfillment capacity.

Chinese sellers are adjusting faster than many U.S. brands

They still represent over 50% of third-party sellers on Amazon. Or at least they did before April 2025.

Some are raising prices. Others are quietly exiting Amazon US completely.

Either way, the sudden shifts are impacting price anchors, consumer expectations, and category dynamics, fast.

Platforms like Temu and TikTok Shop are reacting too

Temu has stopped showing “Shipped from China” tags on its US platform, following the end of the de minimis exemption. Now, it’s selling only products already warehoused in the U.S.

It’s still a cheap-goods marketplace, but average prices have doubled (or more).

These micro-adjustments reflect a broader trend: cross-border commerce is tightening.

Even if you’re not importing directly from China…

...you’re operating in a market shaped by those who are.

The Amazon lens

Amazon isn’t the source of volatility, but it’s a live mirror for how brands are managing through it. It amplifies sloppy strategy just as quickly as it rewards clear, decisive action.

With FBA stock limits tightening (likely a temporary pre Prime Day move) and margin pressure climbing (very much permanent), brands already struggling with resellers, Buy Box suppression, catalog sprawl, or weak marketing returns will feel it more sharply.

We’ll likely see consolidation across categories: some brands will exit, others will be pushed out.

To borrow and reframe Warren Buffett: be greedy when others are fearful — because opportunity always follows the shakeout.

We don’t need to know the next tariff announcement to know that the fundamentals of building a strong business haven’t changed.

So what’s the play?

In every game of Hungry Hungry Hippos, there’s always that one kid who doesn’t slam the lever like everyone else. He pauses. He watches. Waits a few extra seconds — and then make well-timed moves to scoop up marbles.

In chaotic environments, that’s the advantage.

It’s about being ready - with mouth open - but not confusing frantic action with progress.

Saludos,

Irina