Profitable Amazon Growth in Uncertain Times

I’m writing this on the eve of the TikTok ban. A rather unprecedented event in its nature. Will chaos erupt? Will Elon Musk unveil a TikTok replacement at the 11th hour?

Unpredictable events with cascading impacts—whether on social media or in marketplaces like Amazon—are unavoidable. Often in such moments we pull towards principles that ground us in uncertainty.

Blame it on my three-day fast last week (strongly recommend), but it helped me distill three evergreen principles that guide profitable Amazon growth. If you’re curious about how fasting clarified my own business priorities, that’s at the end of this email. For now, let’s dive into the principles. 

1. Solve Constraints, Not Just Set Goals

Setting goals is a natural part of running a business. Sales targets, qualitative metrics, or continuous improvement benchmarks often guide our focus. However, setting goals involves multiple steps: 1) identifying the reason behind the goal, 2) planning a path, 3) detailing execution, and 4) doing the work.

I propose flipping the script. Instead of setting a goal and building a path toward it, start by identifying and solving your biggest constraint. Constraints often reveal themselves more clearly than goals and offer a direct path to progress. So you figure out your biggest constraint, and then work on solving for it. So you cut from 4 steps to 2. 

For example:

• Not enough customers see your product? Solve for brand awareness, marketing, and retargeting.

• Not enough browsers become buyers? Solve for brand presentation, reviews, and page optimization.

• Operational inefficiencies holding you back? Solve for compliance, inventory, and account health.

So if you solve for your biggest constraint it not only unlocks a new path to growth, but more precise planning and goal setting.

I tend to look at what is the constraint first because if it’s not solved now, it will just bigger as an issue

2. Profit First, Adapted for Amazon

it’s hard to reach your way to profitability by spending on marketing, or by having low margin product offers. There are growth phases when margin may dip - investing in new marketing tactics, new market, launch new products. But it can not be an ongoing path to sales with hope of fixing profit with more sales, i.e profit erosion can not be a default.

For newer Amazon businesses, a profit-first mindset means focusing on foundational elements: SKU margins, efficient marketing, and brand growth levers like advertising. For seasoned brands, it’s about managing complexity to preserve margins—and, if you’re a category leader, not getting complacent.

One of my mentors says ‘how you get there is how you will be there’. That very much applies to growth with profitability

3. Embrace Chaos Theory

Chaos theory, rooted in science, explains how small actions can create unpredictable, nonlinear effects in complex systems. Illustrated by the “butterfly effect,” where a butterfly’s wing flap theoretically alters weather patterns halfway around the world. (Hang with me here).

Amazon, like any marketplace, is a complex system. A small change—a price tweak, a new competitor, a single review—can cascade into massive shifts in sales, rankings, and visibility. Dynamic pricing, customer reviews, OOS scenarios create conditions conditions that become sensitive to nonlinear impact of them. 

So in many ways your way to make decisions in your Amazon business to better results is understanding chaos theory in Amazon space. It’s taking variances out when you don’t control platform, competition, macro events.

Practical examples include:

• Doubling down on feedback loops: Lean into what’s working, whether it’s specific SKUs, marketing, channels. The wave you ride today may not be there tomorrow. Often, the 20% that works yields far greater returns than the 80% that doesn’t.

• Dynamic pricing: Adjusting prices in real time (like hotels and airlines) based on demand, competition, and inventory allows you to react to marketplace unpredictability while creating measurable impacts. You are aiming to react to unpredictability of the platform by creating a positive impact to your business. 

Thoughts after a 3 day fast

Three days of fasting reminded me that when you only have a limited amount of energy to spend, you become incredibly intentional about how you spend it. You start asking questions: What really matters? What deserves my attention? What’s just noise?

The experience was eye-opening—and a little uncomfortable. It stripped away the distractions and forced me to focus on the essentials. Dragging myself around on day 1 and 2 to complete my commitments made me realize that growth really oesn’t come from doing everything at once.

But the mental clarity in the end was amazing, and it helped me solidify my priorities:

• Doubling down on CPG brands: For a while I considered expanding into other categories, but my expertise and impact are exponentially greater in CPG verticals.

• Partnering with exceptional brands: Sticking to working with a small number of clients who already have great brands but need guidance pulling that greatness into the Amazon space—whether driving growth, increasing profitability, or supporting internal teams.

Thank you for reading, for investing in your brand, and for striving for more. When the time is right, I’d love to help you on your journey.

Saludos,

Irina