What's Different about this Q4

Every brand knows Q4 matters.

Last year, U.S. ecommerce sales reached $352.9 billion in Q4, almost a quarter of all retail spending in the country. For Amazon, the season delivered $187.8 billion in sales, a 10% jump year-over-year.

And while some categories, like apparel, have high returns and January regret, food and beverage, consumables, personal care see stickier holiday growth tied to gifting, pantry loading, and just plain higher traffic.

There is plenty of good advice for making the most of Q4. And every year it repeats, because it’s that evergreen: stay in stock, plan promotions, execute operationally well.

So I wanted to share thoughts on what is different in 2025, because the rules are shifting beneath and around us when it comes to selling online:

1. Inventory becomes a strategic lever

This year, inventory feels less like a back-end function and more like a strategic decision. Amazon has placed restock limits back on the table, capping shipments by ASIN at roughly 90 days of supply. For many brands that means even the best-selling products can be throttled by algorithms that misjudge days of cover.

It also reframes inventory planning: less about simply having enough, more about where stock sits, how quickly it can be moved, how cash gets tied up. Question on inventory went from ‘how do we stay in stock’ to ‘are we positioned well internally to adapt as Amazon tightens inventory requirements grip’.

The good flip side of that is that your competition may not keep up with Amazon raising expectations on sellers, because its raising expectations on self in breadth, width, and speed of fulfillment.

2. AI Agents at the Forefront of Discovery

Search has become less about typing keywords and more about asking questions. Amazon introduced Rufus, its AI shopping assistant, in early 2024, and by now it’s deeply woven into its search algorithm. Google has pushed its own milestones, from AI Overviews in 2023 to accelerated checkout this year, where a product spotted in a YouTube video can be bought in a single click.

This shift places brands in a new kind of visibility contest. Content that reads like a direct answer (ex.use cases, structured attributes, FAQs) becomes the material that AI agents can surface. And for many shoppers this season, what the agent recommends will carry more weight than what the algorithm used to rank.

3. Saturation and Loyalty

There are fewer “new” online buyers to chase. By now, Gen Z and Millennials are almost universally active ecommerce shoppers. That saturation doesn’t end growth (only 16% of all shopping in the US is done online), but it does change its character. Expansion now comes less from fresh adoption and more from what you do with the traffic that’s already there.

Q4 spikes in traffic can serve as an opportunity to add to a loyalty engine, if you frame it that way. A bundle on your Shopify site, a subscription offer, thoughtful emails in the post-purchase flow.

4. Brand equity in a noisy market

In early 2025, shoppers began taking longer to decide—conversion rates slid by about 5%, even as numbers on total clicks and visits rose. At the same time, over half of Americans now shop through social platforms every week, but attribution is harder to track. Customers move like shopping experts that they are between channels during their journey of discovery, curiosity, to purchase.

Layer in the torrent of AI-generated content. It’s so easy to generate acceptable (not saying great, but very acceptable) content with AI, including visuals. AI-generated content is really putting a Santa hat on in your emails and social media feeds.

Multi-channel shoppers, muddier contribution, channel with their own purpose, and all the noise- that makes me think that anchoring on brand equity, which comes with its own voice, is a way to stand out.

Be remembered, or vanish in the feed, gulp.

5. Channels keep their own purpose

A shopper may discover your product on TikTok, compare options on Google, and ultimately buy it on Amazon. Every channel can now play across the funnel, but each still carries its own center of gravity.

• Amazon remains the king of transactional platform, where intent to buy becomes a purchase.

• TikTok and Instagram are stages for desire and cultural momentum.

• Google is the bridge of research and urgency.

• D2C is the ground where loyalty and repeat purchase can take root.

• Retail marketplaces like Walmart are increasingly about reach and household penetration.

If Q4 has taught us anything, it’s that each of these arenas has its own metric of success. The danger lies in treating them as interchangeable pipes. Their uniqueness is what makes a full picture strategy possible.

This Q4 is more about positioning than volume. Positioning as in, not just having a presence, but holding ground in the places that matter when consumers make choices in new and more fragmented ways.

If it feels like this Q4 is where your brand needs to hold ground, reply to this email. Happy to explore what that can look like- this season and beyond.

Irina